10X Rock Blog
Free, in-depth articles on quantitative investing, hedge-fund analytics, risk management, and US stock market education. Written by traders, for traders.
Earnings AnalysisPost-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD): The 50-Year Anomaly
Why stocks continue drifting for 60 days after positive earnings surprises. Bernard & Thomas (1989), the academic foundation of one of finance's most persistent anomalies, and practical filters (magnitude, guidance, revenue quality, beat streaks) to capture the PEAD effect.
Long-Term StrategyLong-Term Compounding: The Eighth Wonder of the World
Why decades of compounding dwarf any short-term trading strategy. Jeremy Siegel's evidence for stocks over 200 years, the math of CAGR, and how to identify multi-decade compounders like Visa, Mastercard, and Eli Lilly.
Contrarian InvestingBottom Fishing: When the Falling Knife Is Actually a Bargain
The academic evidence for contrarian investing — De Bondt & Thaler's overreaction hypothesis and the LSV value-glamour framework. How to identify oversold quality stocks without catching falling knives.
Niche SignalsMicro-Cap Investing: The Liquidity Blind Spot Where Retail Has an Edge
Why small-cap and micro-cap stocks generate the Size Factor premium documented by Banz (1981) and Fama-French (1992) — and why hedge funds structurally cannot compete in this segment. With quality filters to avoid the value trap.
Niche SignalsInsider Buying Signals: Why Corporate Executives Beat the Market
SEC Form 4 insider purchases generate +5-7% annualized alpha — and Cluster Buys involving CEO/CFO are exponentially stronger. The academic evidence from Lakonishok & Lee (2001) and Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (2012), plus practical filters to separate signal from noise.
Portfolio AnalyticsBeta and Alpha Explained: The Two Numbers Every Investor Should Know
A complete guide to CAPM, Jensen's Alpha, and Beta — what they actually mean, how to compute them, and why hedge funds obsess over them. With concrete examples for SPY, NVDA, and a four-stock portfolio.
Risk-Adjusted ReturnsThe Sharpe Ratio: How Pros Compare Investments Apples-to-Apples
Two stocks with the same 20% annual return are not equal. Learn why the Sharpe Ratio (and its cousin Sortino) is the foundational risk-adjusted return metric — and how to compute and interpret it yourself.
Strategy Validation10 Backtesting Mistakes That Will Wreck Your Portfolio
From lookahead bias and survivorship bias to overfitting and transaction-cost neglect — the most expensive backtesting errors and how to avoid them. Every retail trader makes at least three of these.
Position SizingThe Kelly Criterion: Optimal Position Sizing for Real Traders
The math behind optimal bet sizing used by hedge funds, Edward Thorp, and Warren Buffett. Why Full Kelly will ruin you, why Half-Kelly is the professional standard, and how to apply it to your trading.
Quant ModelsHidden Markov Models for Market Regime Detection
The mathematical tool hedge funds use to detect bull, bear, sideways, and volatile market regimes in real time. How to interpret regime probabilities and use them for strategy selection.
Strategy ComparisonMean Reversion vs Trend Following: Which Strategy Wins?
Two of the oldest competing philosophies in finance. Learn the Hurst exponent, when each works (and fails), and how the smartest funds combine them based on the current regime.
Earnings AnalysisHow to Read an Earnings Report: A Beginner's Guide
The five sections that matter, what beat/miss really mean, why guidance is more important than results, whisper numbers, and how to read the 10-Q like a pro. With a worked NVDA example.
Macro StrategySector Rotation: The Macro Strategy Hedge Funds Actually Use
The 11 SPDR sectors, the four-phase business cycle, leading indicators of rotation, and practical rules for sector ETF trading. With a 2022 case study showing 80%+ alpha potential.
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